Thursday, January 26, 2006

Growth and China (good news)

Well if reports are to be believed the ChiComs just finished the year with a sizzling 9% growth in GDP. At this rate (assuming the US growth slows to 2% and stays there) the Chinese people will enjoy a comparable GDP per capita with the USA in around 30 years. Now the good thing...long before then, somewhere around $15,000 GDP per capita, they will hit a wall. This is the point at which the "low hanging fruit" of development have been harvested and a country really needs to begin harnessing the creative impulses of its citizens to grow beyond....the catch is that history would tend to imply that a totalitarian society cannot grow beyond this point. So the good news is that somewhere around 2015 or so, the ChiCom's will have to relinquish their grip on power or face stagnation. As for believing officially reported data, understand that reporting anything other than the targetted results probably would land the reporting official and his family in a labor there's an incentive to report expected results whether or not they actually exist.

More expansive thoughts here